South Florida Home Price Forecast 2026-2028

If you're thinking about buying or selling a home in South Florida over the next two to three years, the question isn't whether prices will go up or down. It's which segments of the market will appreciate, which will hold steady, and where you might find opportunity. This forecast covers Delray Beach, Boca Raton, and the luxury coastal corridor through 2028.

I'm basing this on what I see every day — not just the data, but the conversations with buyers, sellers, other agents, and lenders. Here's where I think we're headed.

Three Forces Driving South Florida Prices

Before getting into specific numbers, it's worth understanding the structural factors that will shape the market for the next several years.

1. Supply constraints. South Florida has limited developable land, especially in coastal communities. New construction is expensive and slow, and zoning restrictions make it hard to increase density in desirable neighborhoods. This supply constraint acts as a floor under prices.

2. Demand from high-tax states. The migration from the Northeast, Midwest, and California continues. Remote work has made relocating easier, and Florida's lack of state income tax remains a powerful draw. As long as tax rates in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California remain high, South Florida will attract affluent buyers.

3. Interest rate normalization. The dramatic rate increases of 2023-2024 are behind us, but we're unlikely to return to the sub-4% mortgage rates of 2020-2021. A more normal rate environment (5-6%) will reduce the urgency on both sides — buyers won't feel the same pressure to lock in before rates rise, and sellers won't fear missing the peak. This leads to a more balanced, sustainable market.

Delray Beach: 4-7% Annual Appreciation

Delray Beach is well positioned for steady appreciation. The city's brand is strong, its downtown is one of the best in Florida, and the limited inventory of homes in walkable neighborhoods near Atlantic Avenue and the beach will continue to command a premium.

My forecast for Delray Beach through 2028:

• Overall median: From approximately $540,000 in 2026 to $620,000-$660,000 by 2028 — 4-7% annual appreciation.
• Waterfront properties: 6-8% annual appreciation due to extreme supply scarcity and consistent demand from luxury buyers.
• Condos under $400K: 2-4% annual appreciation, moderated by rising HOA fees and insurance costs that reduce net returns for investors.
• Neighborhoods to watch: Lake Ida and the areas near the downtown core should outperform the city average as walkability becomes increasingly valued.

See the Delray Beach Real Estate Trends report for current data.

Boca Raton: 3-6% Annual Appreciation

Boca Raton will see more moderate appreciation overall, driven largely by its size and inventory depth. The city just has more homes, which means more supply to absorb demand.

My forecast for Boca Raton through 2028:

• Overall median: From approximately $675,000 to $760,000-$800,000 by 2028 — 3-6% annual appreciation.
• East Boca (east of I-95): 5-7% annual appreciation, rivaling Delray Beach due to similar scarcity dynamics and top-tier schools.
• West Boca: 2-4% annual appreciation, as newer construction and HOAs keep prices competitive but moderated by supply.
• Luxury ($2M+): 4-6% annual appreciation, driven by cash buyers who are less affected by interest rates.

Read the Boca Raton Market Update for neighborhood-level details.

Highland Beach & Gulf Stream: 6-9% Annual Appreciation

The barrier island communities between Boca Raton and Delray Beach have the strongest appreciation potential in the region, purely because of scarcity. There is essentially no developable land left in Highland Beach or Gulf Stream. Every sale is a resale of an existing home on a fixed supply of oceanfront lots.

My forecast: 6-9% annual appreciation through 2028, with the caveat that these properties are less liquid and may take longer to sell. These are generational holds, not quick flips.

Risks to the Forecast

No forecast is complete without acknowledging what could go wrong. Here are the risks I'm watching:

• A broad economic recession that reduces migration to Florida and pressures local employment could slow or reverse appreciation in the 2027-2028 timeframe.
• Rising insurance costs are a real headwind for Florida real estate. If homeowners insurance and condo HOA fees continue to climb, they will cap price growth, particularly in the condo and townhome segments.
• Climate concerns. As more data emerges about sea-level rise and storm risk, some buyers may reconsider coastal purchases. This is a long-term risk that will take years to materialize but is worth monitoring.
• Overbuilding in certain segments. If too many luxury condo towers get built in Boca Raton or Delray Beach, supply could temporarily outstrip demand in that specific segment.

What This Means for Buyers

If this forecast holds, buying now rather than waiting makes sense for most buyers. Even modest 4-6% annual appreciation means a home purchased at $600,000 today could be worth $675,000-$700,000 in two years. That's equity you can't build while renting.

The exception is if you're targeting a segment (like West Boca condos) where I'm forecasting lower appreciation. In those cases, the decision should be driven by lifestyle and cash flow rather than investment return.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, the message is: don't wait for a peak that may not come. The market is healthy but not frothy. If you own a home in a desirable neighborhood and are ready to move, listing sooner rather than later gives you the advantage of current demand levels. Waiting two years might get you a slightly higher price, but it also means two more years of carrying costs and the risk of a market shift.

The Bottom Line

South Florida real estate remains one of the strongest long-term investments in the country. The combination of supply constraints, migration demand, and lifestyle appeal creates a durable foundation for price growth. Between 2026 and 2028, I expect steady appreciation of 4-7% annually in most desirable coastal neighborhoods, with outperformance in the most supply-constrained areas.

The window for finding a deal is closing as the market stabilizes and inventory normalizes. If you're thinking about making a move, the best time to start the conversation is now.